Newcastle Gold Ltd.

Operating Gold Mines - Quebec & Peru Canadian Gold Producer with significant GOLD Reserves

Hi guys and girls,

Sorry for the absence but I am enjoying some family holidays and just trying to keep up with what is going on is using up all my free time unless I wish to get divorced!

Lots going on and I will give my 2 cents playing devil's advocate.

Concerning complaining to the authorities: There was some suspicious trading last Monday where our sp was down about 10% before that dreaded NR. The trading there was suspicious but considering we were near the 1 year high, a retracement of 10% is not the end of the world.

The NR I agree was way over the top but after rereading it, I am not sure there is anything legally troubling in there. The crusher was actually down and the rest of the statements, even if exagerrated were not illegal IMO, but I am no lawyer.

Complaints about the theft of a Canadian asset by buying really cheap and underhanded, well, we have to wait for the offer to really assess that one now. With a competing offer coming, I cannot see this going for less than fair value. So, I do not think much will come from investigations here either.

Now, for what may potentially happen on Monday morning, an offer from WTG at 2 for 1 CMM shares for WTG shares. As a long time CMM shareholder, I want to see maximum benefit for my shares and to get that, under the current gold price, I think all I need is time.

However, there is a big perception problem in the market about CMM that has always caused us to be valued at less than our asset and cashflow projections. Having these assets in a different vehicle may help unlock that value and that is why I think it is worth looking at this from another angle.

Everyone here seems really afraid of WTG paper and no one wants to own it. Has anyone stopped to think that this is how Finskiy and company want it...that they gave us just enough info that we would run for the hills at the first sign of a good offer?

Here is my analysis of what WTG will look like post CMM buyout (assuming this happens)

WTG cash on hand: 18M left from $24M PP in December

Value of all CMM warrants and options when exercised: about $25M

CMM cash on hand: about $3M

so the new company would have about $45M in cash in the bank plus a $23M line of credit plus the DB Gold line of credit assuming DB transfers it over. So this company will be in a solid cash position.

The company will now be trading on the TSX instead of the TSX.v

The company will now have 3 working mines and adding a small 4th with projections of 200k ounces in 1 year and 1M ounces in 5 years.

Current assets of CMM include 6M ounces of gold but have heard probably closer to 8M ounces of gold. With the other assets, we will be looking at over 10M ounces of gold, a great start for a new company.

This company will be backed by big russian players and will have strong management IMO.

This company should have a valuation near 1B dollars IMO again with all those assets. Now, lets look at the share float:

WTG, currently has 114M shares fully diluted-if someone has a different number, please let me know.

CMM currently has 470M shares fully diluted. If we get a 2 for 1 offer, this will add 235M shares to the shares outstanding for a total of 349M. If we get a 3 for 1 offer, this will add 157M shares for 271M shares fully diluted.

So if the 1B MC is spread over 349M shares, you get a share price of $2.86 per WTG share or $1.43 per CMM share.

If we go the 3 for 1 deal, then the MC is spread over 271M shares for $3.69 per share giving us $1.23 per share.

From what I can tell, Finskiy needs CMM to make WTG work and I do not think he will mess around with the offer. That last NR was BS and they really tainted themselves with it but in the end, this is about getting CMM and not taking chances of it falling into someone elses hands. That NR probably gave them a few more million shares in friendly hands and they are a little closer to getting this done.

WTG with those assets and big money behind it could really do some damage in consolidating some of the gold juniors. Most people here do not like him and how he operates but I do not have to like someone to make money off of them. There is also some logic that Polyus could buy this new company out after it consolidates some of the junior gold producers. What kind of a premium would that demand? Money knows how to make money and hitching a ride here could be very lucrative. The big question is how can we trust them. The answer is I think you cannot trust them but I hope that their greed drives them and we can ride on their coatail.

I do not think Finskiy wants any retail shareholders holding WTG and if I am right, then he must be very happy at all the talk here about retail never wanting to own WTG paper. I can confirm here that he will have at least 1 retail shareholder and that is me, not for my full CMM position but probably half. I will ride this till the end of summer when Polyus is looking to have a premium listing on the London Exchange. If I am right, than I may be getting $3+ for my CMM shares.

Glorieux

Please login to post a reply
glorieux
City
Welland
Rank
President
Activity Points
44835
Rating
Your Rating
Date Joined
10/23/2007
Social Links
Private Message
Newcastle Gold Ltd.
Symbol
NCA
Exchange
TSX-V
Shares
155,078,807
Industry
Metals & Minerals
Create a Post