Assuming FDA Approval and the following:
Dansbury Plant Capacity: 12 lines or 2M patients annually
Current Capacity: 1 line (166k) + adding 3 lines (499k) = capacity now 4 lines (667k) (no further capacity added until after 1 year of sales)
Annual Cost to Patient: $2000
Contribution Margin (CM) after Partner: $500
Share Count: 600M
Time Discount: 10%
Time to End of 1 full Year of Sales: 2 years (from today)
Calc = ((Capacity X CM) / Share Count) X Discount X P/E
= ((667000 X 500) / 600 000 000) X ((1+ 0.10)^2)^(-1) X P/E
= (0.555) X (1/1.21) X P/E
= $0.5558 X .8264 X P/E
= $0.459 X P/E
Todays Price assuming FDA approval, and partner:
P/E 18 = $ 8.26
P/E 25 = $11.94
P/E 30 = $14.33
Comments (and voting stars if your feeling generous) to the undersigned.
Enjoy the day,
OOG
