Bob:
I had issues too with the multiple used. In any of my models I maxed it out at 16-18X eps.
As to the total profit I used 420M share and got 118M.
This is were I want to look deeper into their inputs to their calc. If we assume a contribution margin of 40-50% on $2000 per annual treatment. Not sure what the marketing and admin costs are but lets say 25% of the $2000 we get left with $500 per patient profit. Playing with these numbers we get total count of patients under care around 235200 (118M/500) or about 10% of the plant total capacity which could also lead one to believe that a market penetration of less than 1% (235K/30M (north america)) which correlates to my original penetration estimates (read magic 8 ball guesses). Griffin in previous reorts had mentioned penetrations of around 7% of market in later years (thin 5 year timeframe).
Guess the key figure in this calculation is the botom line on the contribution margin per client. I just want them to make it to the finish line so all parties affected will seeming be better off (except of course shorty if he doesn't cover).
Anyways, I be off to the other job,
OOG
