Fancamp Exploration

Just arrived here (been a reader for some time), but I will immediately try for an all-time favorite board post. :)

To start: finally, the new web site is live. A site that actually works using Google Chrome. A site that doesn't look like it was build by my 12-year old nephew a decade ago. I forgive the Magpie pdf (chrissakes..) movie, it was worth downloading Adobe reader to view it.

The web site might seem like a futility, but I know of several people having dismissed the FNC story immediately after (trying to) view the website to obtain information.

Website, check. Now what? So.. my take on FNC:

Summary
Summing up all the below we currently have $ 56m in value, or $ 0.75 per FNC share (using the 74.7m shs o/s per July 31st).

Major upside comes from further progressing Magpie, as well as getting Fermont towards production. We also have some free call options and sweeteners, see below.

Marketable Securities / cash

From SEDAR, the interim statements per July 31st:

Champion: holding 1,450,000 shares (representing 50% of the 2,900,000 shares to be received pursuant to the option agreement) + 250,000 shares (see below - for already correcting that I calculate with a 15% Fermont interest instead of 17.5%) @ $ 1.25 per CHM share is $ 1.8m.

Argex: holding 9,000,000 shares (in escrow until Oct 30, 2013) @ $ 0.42 is $ 3.8m.

We also have Urucan, Diadem, Bonaventure, Nebu, St-George Platinum and RT Minerals shares.. but we can pretty much neglect that as insignificant (a few $100k) to our estimates.

Cash: $ 7.9m

Properties

Champion (CHM) JV
FNC holds a 17.5% interest in Fermont and CHM the other 82.5%. CHM can earn an additional 2.5% by issuing 250,000 common shares and incurring all necessary expenses to complete a positive bankable feasiblity study on the project.

So what's FNC's 15% worth? Let's see - CHM has 88m shares out. Cash was $ 28m at the end of September. Cash is expected to go to $15m by year end (source: FraserMackenzie report on CHM, Nov 7, initiating CHM coverage, strong buy, target price $ 3.50 - see page 17).

So at $ 1.25 per CHM share we're talking a $110m market cap, and, depending on what cash you take, an EV of about $ 100m (easy for calculation purposes). That would leave us with about $ 15m for FNC's share of Fermont.

FNC has a 1.5% NSR on Fermont, buyback of 0.5% for $500k. I will set this at zero to offset the CHM Attimakagen earlier stage project (JV-ed to Century Iron, which can earn up to 60%), which is of course also part of the CHM share price.

CHM is currently in talks with FNC regarding its Fermont stake. They see FNC as a nuisance in their talks with other interested development partners. My message to Smith would be: preferably swap the 15% Fermont interest for an equity interest in CHM (them to offer new shares, as many as possible), do not sell for cash only.. that will keep us in touch with CHM upside. Otherwise, if we only receive cash and CHM moves up afterwards, FNC shareholders will be disappointed. And of course, because CHM is way undervalued (read the Fraser report on CHM - it is sell side, but it is good and thorough) as well.

The advantage would also be that FNC does not have to continually invest its share in the project, which would take ever increasing amounts of funds.. yes folks, which means ever more private placements.. no, just ride the CHM interest. And also keep the NSR, if possible.. and of course, as a bonus, be reimbursed for a percentage or maybe the full share of FNC's share of Fermont expedition costs.

Magpie
Dear reader, congratulations, you have made it to the prime reason of your existence as FNC shareholder. As everyone probably knows around here, this is the motherlode. It is my reason for being in FNC. 1 bn tonnes of massive iron-titanium mineralisation with chromium and vanadium credits, starting from surface. Two giant piles of ore, just waiting to be shipped to China or whoever wants to buy. What is it worth? Time will tell, after the IPO the market will dictate and we will be able to tell from day to day.

My guess for now would be: at least a couple of $100m, and of that somewhat less than half (47%) attributable to FNC. Magpie should develop over time. We all know FNC is not very capable of doing this themselves, given the lack of focus. But another advantage of the Magpie IPO is that a stand-alone management will be installed and they will progress the project, much like CHM did with Fermont. Best if FNC just becomes something of an investment vehicle and keep some grassroots hobby projects for Smith on the side.

So, for now, a very simple calculation: FNC has close to 55m shares with the pre-drilling placement at $ 0.50 per share, leaves us with $ 27.5m for Magpie.

Other properties
Appalachian, Red Paint, Desolation. I conservatively value these at zero. Why? Most easy and probably also not far off the mark at this point.

Lamelee seems to be capable of adding some nice tonnage to Fermont. CHM has a right of first refusal. I'm looking forward to a inferred resource study on this one and maybe CHM will take this one for a nice package of CHM shares and perhaps some reimbursement of exploration expenses. It's worth something, but I don't know what, so let's call this one a sweetener.

McFaulds - I would say this is pretty much a call option on Noront. I know a lot of you guys (and gals) are in FNC because of this one, but this isn't priority number one, two, three, or four, for that matter. See Magpie for FNC's top priority.

Smith stated in the AGM presentation: "This is now a wait and see property – substantial development on the immediately adjacent Noront property, with its high grade Eagle’s Nest Ni,Cu, PGM deposit and its Blackbird chromite deposits will not likely take place without some arrangement with FNC."

I was very pleased to read this. Focus and no more spending, yes. FNC is getting the hang of it.

Going forward
Magpie IPO will come next year.. as I said earlier on this board, it will be contingent upon market conditions. Yes it should have happened this year, but if I have to reject every company that does not adhere to its timeline, I will be left with only a few in the entire investment universe. I don't care that much really, as long as it keeps progressing. And it is progressing. Something we've not seen in years.

Despite the stock heading south, in this year we have actually seen a lot of progress on the properties, in terms of drilling and moving towards value creation. With Champion moving towards production, guided by the former Consolidated guys, and of course Magpie, which ticks all the boxes for a becoming a huge mine, we should be heading towards seeing the stock price somewhat more resembling its underlying fundamentals.

Happy investing everyone.