I copied this from another bullboard - as it applies to my Falcon holdings and the absurdity of the current share price. Given our current depressed levels - it is sometimes hard to remember that Philip O'Quigley is moving Falcon in the right direction with Beetaloo drilling and Karoo licensing both coming this summer.
Do you own a stock or a business?
When you have a stock that is under pressure, it is useful to consider (as objectively as possible), whether it is declining for stock-specific reasons or -- alternatively -- as a result of factors that are technical, macro-economic or sector-related.
If the company's fortunes have experienced a turn for the worse, then it can make ample sense to sell the shares -- even at a loss, so that the remaining capital can be re-deployed into a more promising venture.
When I consider the current decline in "Falcon" stock, I am left to conclude that it has nothing to do with the underlying value of the company or its long-range prospects. Indeed, I believe that the company is becoming more valuable, with each completed milestone.
One has to remember that stocks represent the fractional ownership of a BUSINESS, and a claim against the future cash flow of the company.
Let's say that you were the majority owner of a privately held business. Not a publicly traded stock. Would you be concerned with the perceived market value of that business on a day-to-day basis?
Let's say that someone holds a tiny, minority interest in that business and finds themselves in financial distress. They complete a sale at a price that you consider absurdly low. Would you allow that sale to change your opinion regarding the value of the company?
As the saying goes -- people buy stock for one reason and sell for a million reasons. The price, at any given time, is determined by the transaction at the margin -- whether it is representative of long-term value or not.
As far as I am concerned, long term shareholders who sell the stock in this environment are giving away $1 bills for pennies. That is their right -- that is their business.
As for me, I continue to believe that public market value will eventually be pushed in the direction of the in situ value of the gas and oil. If I am right, that would propel the share price many times higher even in an environment of low oil and gas prices.
I don't need to sell my shares and can be as patient as necessary. It is human nature to want the value to be realized "today". But I am fine with the value being realized "tomorrow".
When you adopt this perspective and cast yourself in the role of business owner, rather than public shareholder... you will find that whatever stress you have been experiencing as a result of gyrations in the stock price, melts away.
I will continue to carefully follow the company news and if things change, I will admit it and move on. Until then, I will continue to visualize the day on which the promise is finally realized.
