Crystallex International

On Venezuela’s coup anniversary, the big question: Who’s in control?

Golpistas battle to overthrow Venezuela's government in 'Coup at Daybreak,' ('Amanecio de Golpe') a new movie about a 1992 coup attempt led by then-lieutenant colonel Hugo Chavez.

Today is the anniversary of Hugo Chavez’s failed 1992 coup attempt against then-President Carlos Andres Perez. Chavez was an army lieutenant colonel at the time of the coup, and he was responsible for deaths and blood spilled in his attempt to subvert democracy and seize power by force. The guy should still be in prison. Instead, through a bizarre turn of events, he is president of Venezuela.

Well, kindasorta.

Chavez has some kind of ill-defined cancer affecting his pelvic region. He has traveled repeatedly to Cuba for medical treatment. The last time he left Venezuela, in early December, he issued a statement strongly suggesting that his planned surgery was risky and that he might not survive. His condition went from bad to worse. He developed a respiratory infection, and rumors swirled that he was in a coma. He has not been seen or heard from since the operation.

There is no proof that he’s even alive. We have second-hand reassurances from top aides who have visited him in Cuba that he’s alive and conscious. Today, former Cuban President Fidel Castro offered more second-hand assurances, saying that he receives daily updates on Chavez’s condition and that the reports are positive. Castro did not claim to have visited Chavez personally and seen for himself. And it’s not clear whether Castro would tell the truth if he knew that Chavez’s condition was, in fact, deteriorating.

What’s more dangerous, in my opinion, is the power vacuum that exists back home. Chavez’s aides produced a document that, they claim, he signed from his hospital bed. On its face, the red-ink signature appears to be bogus. It doesn’t bear any of the signs of shakiness and infirmity, as someone who’s spent weeks in the hospital would naturally be expected to show.

Chavez missed his own inauguration. The Supreme Court he manipulated into existence ruled that he didn’t have to take the oath of office on the constitutionally prescribed inauguration date and that it could be postponed indefinitely. So he gets to be president without actually having to abide by the constitution — much like the twisted reasoning he used in 1992 to justify the subversion of democracy in order to seize power militarily. Why let the pesky details of democracy get in the way?

Vice President Nicolas Maduro has essentially assumed the powers of the presidency. For all Venezuelans know, he and others are behind “signed” presidential decrees bearing Chavez’s signature such as one on Sunday authorizing the government to nationalize a private petroleum company, Petrocabimas. If Maduro were to run for election on his own without the presence of the highly charismatic Chavez to inspire voters, it’s doubtful he would win. But with the power of the presidential signature, Maduro can do just about whatever he wants, it seems. So on the anniversary of the failed Chavez coup, we might very well be witnessing a real coup.