I agree with JJ,
I don't like any of the parties (besides us shareholders) involved in trying to take money out of my pocket, but I think this is a case of better the devil you know (management), than the one you don't (bondies).
Furthermore, this is all high stakes negotiation here. We know what bondies want since they took it public in their last motion. They wanted everyone to think they are now being reasonable compared to what they first asked, which they still aren't, not in this case. We just don't know what crystallex is offering them. Is it principal + interest, or is it less.
For those who have read the transcript of the cross examination of Robert Fung in January, it is clear to see that there is a lot of bad blood between the bondies and management. The bondies have taken their offer public to see if they can get more support from all parties to push their plan forward. While managment is threatening (from what it seems in the transcipt) to invalidate bondie claims (or at least delay their attempt to make claim) based on insider trading/breach of confidentiality allegations. Hence all the talk about getting bondie trading records. I don't know what kind of delay that would cause, but I assume it can be stretched for another year.
I think both sides have a lot of dirt on each other, no doubt, and they'll come to agreement before the shit hits the fan. My guess, bondies get principal + interest accrued, and if they're lucky, 5% of arb proceeeds. Otherwise, they can wait until the case is over. Furthermore, I'm sure the judge will take into consideration what the rest of the claims ($7 million or so, some secured?) are going to settle for. If they are going to settle for their principal + interest, then why should the bondies get more then that? (regardless of the amounts owed)
And as for tenor, well, push come to shove, I don't see them having a problem sucking more percentage out of us for a bit more money. Lets see, they already invested 35 million for 35%. I can see them giving us another 5 million + interest for another 5%. So, I wouldn't be too worried about the running out of money part. Because we won't need much more. After the case is finally heard, all expenses should come down considerably.
For those wondering about my share price math previously. Just a rough calculation. Obviously this is going to change, just an illustration.
on $600 million award:
Debt and expenses:
Tenor (assuming another 2 years before payment) 35million + 10% compounded for 3 years = $47 million
Bondies (assuming we give them their 15% for 3 years since we went bankrupt) on top of what they are owed (104 million) = $150 million
Expenses =are currently being paid out of Tenors advances, but lets add on another $10 million for greedy management and follow through of the case after oral hearing. = $10 million
So, that leaves us with $393 million to split up now.
% of arb proceeds to parties involved
Tenor gets 35% or $138 million
Bondies get 15% or $59 million
Greedy management takes MIP of 5% or $20 million
Which leaves us shareholders with $176 million or $0.44 per share based of 400mm shares fully diluted. Keep in mind this number is 2 years away at least.
Anyway,
FK.
