Well,
48hrs to go. Is a hail mary pass coming? This is ridiculous, and i believe, on purpose. Somebody wants to pick up as many shares on the open market as they can, and the only way that can happen is delay, delay, delay, and panic.
Like someone else on the board said. If someone really wanted to get out of 10 million shares yesterday, why accomodate them at 8 cents? Let it fall to 4,5 or 6, right. Maybe a conspiracy theory is that the funds who sold in august or september are getting their shares back from a counterparty who held them and profited from them in the meantime . After all, they prob sold at the 6 cent low back then.
But anyway, maybe I'm just grasping at straws. My view however, is this deal is still getting done, but maybe this delay was planned to accomodate our new investors for whatever sinister reasons. However, Bob better not be giving up too much of the pie after being jerked around.
After all, if one looks at what might happen to the creditors in the sino forest saga, we may have more leverage with the current bonholders than we think. They better go through that indenture again with a fine toothed comb. Here's an excerpt from todays press release regarding Sino forest:
"It's very difficult if most of a company's assets are contractually controlled, because creditors face a lot of issues as to whether or not liquidators can exercise any right over them," said Fredrik Oqvist, a freelance consultant who advises on ownership structures in China.
Added to the creditors' headache in trying to assess what assets they can get their hands on in Sino-Forest's complex web of subsidiaries.
While the company's sole business is buying and selling timber - from whole trees to wood pulp - it has 149 separate entities, dozens of which are domiciled in the British Virgin Islands and China, plus others in Hong Kong, Canada, Barbados and elsewhere.
"It's not necessarily the case that every complex corporate structure is in place for bad reasons, but they can be used for bad reasons," said a Canadian lawyer who specializes in restructuring and insolvency issues.
TOUGH TALKS
This will make it tough for Sino-Forest's bondholders when it comes to debt restructuring talks, as they won't have a clear idea of how much the company's underlying assets are worth - the normal starting point in any bargaining
Cheers,
FK
