i originally posted this on another board but was hoping to get input from some of the folks here. any thoughts?
i know it's OT but we dont have much news now and there are a few folks here i'd like to hear from on this matter (also it's the weekend)...the recent mindset (especially among goldbugs) has all been about "economic armageddon"....but i submit the following thoughts on the matter:
warning: there are some cold, logical thoughts put forth below. i'm not trying to pass judgement or forgetting the attached emotional loss. i'm only trying to state some facts.
barring natural global catastrophe, food shortages, 2012, nuclear terrorism or 1000 other dire predictions for mankinds fall, i say..... the biggest economic boom since the end of WWII is actually on its way. especially in the US...here is my reasoning.
Taken from a fidelity investment sponsired news article- "The Center for Retirement Research at Boston College estimates that 70% of baby boomer households will receive inheritances. These will total $8.4 trillion — an average of nearly $300,000 per inheriting household, with the wealthiest 10% receiving an average of $1.5 million."
now, add to that the fact that a large generation of people is currently passing (i've personally experienced this recently and others here have as well). it's a sad but natural cycle. now take into account that a large portion of the actual "baby boomer" generation is retiring and will be exiting the workforce.
also, keep in mind some of the generalities of the baby boomer generation. as a rule, they are NOT "savers" . many, also hav'nt lived as clean or healthy a life as thier parents did and imo a large percentage of the baby boomers will not live as long as thier parents did.
so now in the USA over the next few years:
- $8.4 trillion will be inherited by a large retiring generation, basically all at the same time.
- the largest generation in the US will have more disposable income and more demand for goods/services while at the same time exiting the workforce.
- the largest "transfer of wealth" (already happening) will take place and shift from a generation of "savers" to a generation of "credit takers".
conclusion: over the next few years...the US will rapidly intensify its "service related" economy and money will be flowing like never before. generations "X" and more especially "Y" will go from "i cant find a job and if I could it would'nt pay anyway" to new found wealth (which they have no experience with) further intensifying the spending spree. in the end, prices for goods and services will soar and bring about a new economic downfall but the next 10-15 years should spur an economic boom rarely seen...imo
this comes to you from the same guy that was posting about buying canned food, guns and beer and going into the bunker in late 2005'...i was a little early with that call so i might be a little early with this one...but that's my take.
