CJR,
I would prefer the bond issuance too. The less dilution, the better.
Or maybe a white knight of sorts (maybe one of Fungs friends at Barrick (who bought Placer dome) or Goldcorp, who would love to stick it to Chavez and Venezuela. They could refinance us for a cut or the arbitration value I guess. But don't know if their shareholders would approve such a deal or not, even though its just a drop in the bucket to them.
MOM, i wouldn't necessarily write off the bonds going from 0.39 to 0.60 on the dollar as nothing. I mean, if i'm reading that chart right, they purchased $2 million dollars worth, or an extra $600-$700K than they were worth just a few weeks ago. Or if its based on face value, then 1.2million and an extra $300-$400K. Not really chump change. Thats equivalent to buying like 10 million shares on the open market, so, it could be a sign of confidence ( a bet?) that either they will get paid off at a higher value. Whether through refinance or asset sales, I don't know.
There are a lot of possibilities.
But cjr, you bring up a good point, could the bondholders go after an arbitration case as an asset? I mean, i know they are protected against the equipment, the data and the MOC. But isn't the MOC technically worthless now? I know the case is based on it being cancelled, but is it an asset any more? The water gets a little muddy, especially when Bondholders are trying to bankrupt shareholders. I feel that a bankruptcy judge may be a little nicer to shareholders, especially considering what we could get in an arbitartion win. How long can we stay in bankruptcy protection? is 2 - 3 years unheard of? these factors may make the bondholders think twice about pushing us into BK, and settle for less than face value.
I know, i ask to many questions. Fogive me, I'm just a kid. This was just supposed to be buy, get the permit, and sell. But it is good for knowledge though. Lets hope its not an expensive lesson.
FK.
