My Take/Opinion,,,,,
Possible outcomes:
1. Project proceeds as stated, doubtful. But some variant is still possible.
2. Compensation/Buyout from the Chinese. Door is open on this one about the same as it has always been.
3. Arbitration. Self explanatory. Waiting on the registration of our case and then initial hearing laying out the dates for our memorial, etc.
Some "soon" items that may have a tell:
1. Cancellation of MOC gazzetted?
2. Kicked off LC property?
3. Registration of arb claim?
4. Chinese meetings with Vz results vs. ongoing into oblivion?
5. Bondholders reaction?
Other:
1. Does Crystallex think cancellation of MOC or (if) physical control of LC lost that that stipulates a default on the bonds. My dd says no.
2. Finance companies exist for arbitrations. I assume management has something in mind already but isn't in a hurry.
I think management is going to let this unfold and play defense. They have the cash to last the year and will just react to other parties actions. They will pursue arbitration agressively and if nothing happens by summer will work toward getting financing to take care of the bondholders. Arbitration itself will not cost more than $10million total, plus minimal operating expenses.
I would imagine (common sense) any settlement offer will be financed from the Chinese. I guess if Vz. wants a clear slate of the LC property they could agree with the Chinese as part of a deal with CRRC to mine LC to pay us off. Then they could go after LB too if desired. Or the Chinese will just take a step back and wait. But it sure seems like something will give before arbitration gets off the gound in any real terms. At least I am hopeful that we get a cash settlement to just go away. Although I doubt if management is pursuing a settlement at this point but I suppose they would be receptive to accelerated talks if asked.
