I think the key now is rested on financing.
What are the financing options out there?
If the cash balance is about $10M - $20M and the arbitration takes 3 years.
1) Extended the debt by current bond holder? But with the current burn rate, even if the bondholder extends it, KRY will have problem in 1 years?
2) Restructing the debt with another bond? If so, I believe the company need to raise approximately $250M - $300M. I think we are in high risk and probably the risk premium will be very high within the interest rate. It probably be something like LIBOR + 10, but with the hedging it might go to 15-20%. So if we need to finance $200M, then annual interest payment is about $40-50M. The financing of 250M can cover the 100M current debt and 3 years of interest. But that is really a lot of cash.
3) Convertible Note or Preferred Shares for say $150M? That probably will dilute our shares from 400M to 800M. Let say we are getting 80% of the claim as the settlement, approximately 3B at the end of 3 years. That is about $3.75 per share and discount it back, that will be $3 at today value. If 50%, 1.9B? Then our value should be about $2 per share.
4) Additional Common Shares? Same dilution impact.
What other options we have in term of financing? Anyone?
