I agree with you. Under normal circumstance, there will not be a pop.
By at the same time, I am considering the following factors:
1) with the monetary value assigned by GRZ, I think this might help most analysts to assign a comparable value to kry's arbitration if things do not settle in late May.
2) From my opinion, this monetary value will catch the headline of Ven government and could probably goes into most north america media site. As a result, this will help to promote the speculate play behind kry if things do not settle for us.
3) Kry dispute deadline is late May. As a result, time becomes a favor of Kry becasue we have the option to file this dispute further to IA if things do not settle in the near future while Grz will have another 6 months waiting period before further actions.
4) From an analyst prospective, I will suggest most analysts will not take that 5B ,9 B or 18B as the full value, but might assign a possible conservative settlement factor such as 20% or 30% which should give us around 1B to 1.5B (Taking the 5B that GRZ mentioned as the baseline). With 0.3B shares outstanding, this might signal that the instrinic value of Kry share could be around $3-$5 dollars even if we need to file for arbitration to the international court.
I do not think Kry will have the issue of bankruptcy if we need to wait for arbitration. With the sale of its capex balance, the company can stay in business for around 2-3 years as I assumed.
As a result, I am guessing that will attract some speculate players to come into play. Any ideas?
