3.5 billion over 5 years before mining can commence (and revenue starts coming in) is the issue I think that is weighing this project down considering Teck's current financial situation. If coal or other commodities were at very profitable prices - I think a bold, long term move would be very likely. After the mine is built it will be a huge long term revenue stream for many decades - maybe a century before the whole district is played out.
That said, there is nothing stopping them from getting SC on the go right after optimizations are completed. The options you outlined are valid IMHO. It would be a smart move I think.
They certainly can swing it if they want to - I'm not discounting that scenario.
I just think the odds are that they will go for a distressed producing mine in the near term (if they can find one). They seem to be playing it conservative to me, but that could be a ruse?
I would be thrilled to see SC get a production decision. It is a large and very valuable asset.
Actually, I think their current financial situation is in a lot better shape for acquisition or building an asset.
As for the distressed producing mine, I have these questions.
Do you have a specific mine as example?
Is the mine profitable at current copper price? If yes, why would they sell a good asset? If no, why do you want to buy it? If break even, go to other questions to see if it's a good asset.
Is the mine in a safe jurisdiction?
Basically, what I'm trying to say is that, all the mining companies know that the market is bad right now. There are vultures (i'll use this term) who are circling around companies looking for assets. But are there any good assets to buy? That's the issue. It's tough finding a good producing asset for purchase.
