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Interesting article.
Couple points the author didn't really go into.
1. He was not specific on type of works Teck has done so far at SC.
2. He assumed Teck will follow the BFS by showing the base case and current metals revenue.
- Current metals revenue? Why would you even consider that when the mine is years away from production.
- Did not acknowledge that Teck/JV is looking into the INITIAL 12 years period and also a smaller camp to reduce the payback period.
3. Even with his numbers, he stated CUU average G&A cost is $1.2 million per year average, we should still have 3 years time including a PEA on VD. However, I remember G&A should be much less than $1.2 million a year. He claims an equity offering is the best scenario but EE can always lend CUU the money if that's the case. Or spinoff Desert Fox and Northern Fox. I think we've touched the dilution argument enough times.
4. Generalized that metals are weak, Teck hands with Fort Hills are full, they won't spend money. He doesn't understand that it takes progressive stages in constructing a mine. EA, permits, road works, deposits of equipement, excavation etc. etc... the "$3.5 billion" capex invoice doesn't come at once but split over a span of time and different stages.
Very weak article imo. He doesn't even talk about the $4.8 million program and what's in it.
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In regards to #3. This is not true what you are saying. We have 3 years(ish) @ 1.2mil/year(ish). A PEA at VD would be on top (no idea what this costs though) of this, depending what we spend on we could be out this year. As you said though, spinoff VD for funding or else maybe we don't need much more than a year a funding. It should be something on your radar, but IMHO it isn't something to worry about during the current fiscal year.
