I don't know ppcguy, there are so many variables here we're guessing at, it makes one's head spin. I guess we don't know how much of each metal will be extracted per tonne precisely, so we don't really know the amount of ore to multiply by price per lb either. And how is Teck going to look at this in the end - NPV5 or NPV8, or somewhere in the middle?
Good points earlier regarding the escalation issues for quotes, and the 30 day limit on pricing (some EPC's ask for 60 or 90 days, but 30 is the norm in my experience). The more I see of budget quotes for feasibility studies firsthand, there is a big margin for error/miscalculation. Suppliers need to cover their butts by not pricing too low, engineering firms need to cover their butts by adding in contingency, then the miner adds in more contingency ... and then most of the projects still run over when they get built, save a few! Very difficult exercise especially when a large feasibility study takes years to complete.
The NPV5 for the 2008 PFS was $4.79B and for the NPV8 was $2.76B (before tax). Greater throughput alone could "potentially" add another few billion to these numbers, IF all else stayed the same (eg. capex/opex). If, if, if ... so many variables, and of course a good more than you list, RT (don't want to list them all!).
Can't think about it anymore, just need the big paper to drop. Please, pretty please, hurry up with the BFS, cash and/or Teck shares.
