Frankly, I had some concern that the buyout price might be lowballed by Tech initially and we would be involved in a battle to obtain a reasonable price with an effective PR campaign on this board and others attempting to drive the price down in the absence of a feasability study incorporating the latest and best drill results.
This is not implausible....Im certain of a buyout however the price is really up in the air. My predictions stand but I should add I have also heard some plausible scenarios that could in fact indicate a lessened buyout price. I should inform everyone that none of these go below $4.
However...if Teck took 75% and then didnt like the price Big E wanted.....its pretty assured to me someone else might want a chunk of the action. If they dont however....buyout dreams are dashed. The ensuing run to sell at the peak could tank the share price on everyone, because I just somehow dont think anyone feels like waiting around on this paper for Teck to take us to production. How do I know? Look at the backlash in a 3 month delay....how would everyone feel if Teck said 'no' and every other potential buyer (unlikely but for arguments sake) said 'no'? Would you run to be dumping this thing while it was still soaring? Or would you be happy waiting around for it to go into production? I bet Ernesto would want to start getting his money out quick.
This is a real scenario, however unlikely.
If Teck refused to pay what big E wanted (Lets arbitrarily say $6)....it also stands to measure that another potential acquiring company might still play lowball with us. At this point Big E having already refused an offer of say $4.75...might start thinking $5 sounds pretty good. If Teck doesnt see the value in paying him what he wants...it does logically stand to reason that neither will any other company, or they will use the added pressure to get a better deal. Again...seemingly unlikely....but more real than the first scenario I posted.
These are both plausible theories that may yet come to pass. CUU is still a stock and as such is exposed to both systemic and non-systemic risk. Nothing is for certain.
I agree a PR campaign might help....but Im fairly certain they wouldnt be using AG to do it. Ernesto calls all the shots with this, at the end of the day....he WILL decide your buyout price. I dont think its going for less than $5 but we can all be wrong, and we certainly will not be exposed to every facet of the negotiations. Even if we were all our votes put together wouldnt have an effect.
If Ernesto was happy was $3.....well.....guess what we're all getting.
Im certain however....if it came down to a buyout within a certain range...Big E would take the lowball offer and err on the side of caution. He has a lot of money tied up in this....and honestly...I personally (totally my own opinion with no way to support this) believe that his magic number is $1 billion. Itd be nice to say you made a billion off the stock market. No one wants to potentially lose a billion bucks haggling over pennies on the dollar either...hence where common sense would also dictate taking a slightly lower price.
All things are lined up very well.....but our best chance is still with Teck in my eyes. After that we're just adding more risk on the pile.
Rogue,
