I think the BFS is factored into the current price. The BFS has been anticipated for months and, theoretically, could drop any day. We should not expect any tip-off that the BFS is coming out tomorrow or the next day so we are all holding. I don't expect any significant increases in volume until the BFS NR.
In other words, anyone who was buying CUU in anticipation of the BFS/TCK decision should have done so already.
We saw the net buying early this year (like the 1st 3 wks of Jan) as people re-positioned after tax loss selling, the Greek situation and CUU's news.
I think the current SP has baked in the 25% (actually 23.X%) CUU position after the TCK 75% earn-in declaration, 3 yr metal prices and the in situ metals AND the risk that can be anticipated with a new BFS. I don't believe that SP has baked in the premium on SP for a takeout since the TCK percentage and the BFS will determine a lot of CUU's final value.
I don't think we'll see any real volume or price movement until the BFS drops. I think that date is looking like the last days of March.
I am intrigued by the apparent insider blackout. All (circumstantial) evidence appears to point to this being the case.
