EBITDA 2011 confirmed at $130mln. With previous projections, you could have expected $200mln + in 2012. With the output guided below previous indications for 2012 (that was the disappointment today more than earnings which had been pre-released in January) and being conservative, we can cut that to $160-170mln.
160*9 - 800 (net debt)= 640mln, i.e 1.42 sh. I am using the average EV/EBITDA for transactions or public comps (MEG, Nexen, ....)
On a reserves basis, as often noted here, the Company is worth way more but it takes time to develop those reserves and oil sands extraction is costly. So a buyer looking at the reserves will try to pay this 1.42 and not really more in my mind especially with the leverage.
The Company remained silent on the M&A process and even cancel the earnings call next week as they know they can't answer the main questions that investors might ask (confidentiality).
Hope this helps.
