Not much activity on and CLL Corporate front. CLL share price shows strong resistance at ~95 cents after steady erosion and slide below $1. It seams that CIBC is the only party supporting the share price at this level.
In February Connacher realized Bitumen prices are stabilizing around $51/bbl, down from about $60/bbl average for Nov/Dec/Jan.
$51 per bbl is just below CLL TOTAL cost including interest charges , split G&A, Maintenance and Sustainability Capex, WTI hedges, etc...
In January they reported $112 million cash balance, down from over $120 million in December despite strong bitumen prices. On Feb 1 they paid $39 million interest instalment lowering the cash balance to about $80 million.
By the end of July 2012 CLL will have to pay $144 million to buy back convertibles and pay the interest. They should be OK if bitumen prices will stay at this level or go higher and they will not have any unexpected production related expenses.
Executive shuffle may cost additional $8 to $10 million if not contested in the court.
IMO JV (from the corporation point of you ) is the only way to move forward with the expansion. CLL free cash flow can not support any new projects including conventional Oil.
From the shareholders point of you buyout maybe the only solution to get instant positive returns on their investments. For some reason nobody is stepping forward with the offers. I guess CLL at this prices in not a bargain anymore.
