Just another "lurker" who seldom posts, but this time has done so twice in the past one month. I review most if not all posts due to the analytical thinking that we we are able to read and ponder about on this board. I am now back from a short stint at a petrochemical plant in Saudi Arabia, my third time in the area over the past 5 years. I mentioned earlier that the English language newspaper Arab Times was speculating that their Minister of Petroleum was promoting a higher $90 price per barrel band. I, after reflection, do believe that the Saudis are wanting to go to a higher price band for their products but want to do so without causing another recession. The reason that I am thinking this way is twofold. First their higher cost, although still low by SAGD standards, for pumping out a barrell of oil due to the newer technology being used. However the second and for me the major point is what I viewed. From Jubail with its many, many petrochemical plants all the way up to Dammam, there are major expansion projects that are actively being constructed together with more that are being planned. These are high cost endeavors that make the area a sea of construction cranes expanding their major plants and building new ones. They are smart and want to have a decent return on thier investment through having a higher price of oil. They will not allow the price of oil to again collapse.
So what does this mean to Connacher? Well it seems to me that there will be a higher average price of oil over the near 2 to 3 year term, which if translated to a higher price of bitumen would increase revenue without any effort on the companies part. Translated, I am a long term shareholder who is increasingly comfortable with this particular investment. The other reasons for this confidence has been posted by others on this board. I offer these comments as a different perspective for other "lurkers" and regulars on this board to also ponder.
