Den:
Trust me. I am not rooting for a blow out in the Middle East between Iran and Israel. Quite to the contrary, I agree we would be courting world wide disaster in every sense I can think of. My contention is, if such should come to pass, I would rather own some Oil Sands than not. As to the super cycle, we are in complete agreement. However, when it comes to choices between National life and death, I am not confident Israel would agree!
An interesting role reversal. Normally, I am the "perma bear". The interesting aspect? If Israel and Iran tangled, one would want to be long oil, food and other staples (neccesities of life), gold, silver and other "hard" stores of value, and short everything else. Actually, I am being consistent in my pessimism. The only real difference is the degree of and sense of timing of which I am uncertain and therefore less confident in short term market oscillations. Do not wish to miss the big move, in pursuit of smaller but, more frequent oscillations. To be right once, is tough. To be right on a repetitous basis adds exponentially to the difficulty of the task. If one loses confidence in the long term efficacy of a decision, then likely it is better to undo the decision.
Brian
