Hi Spide,
Good way to start the discussion. As you know better then most of us here, CLL is not trading based on the value per flowing barrel. Most likely it is traded based on the Risk Adjusted NAVPS like most of the oilsand plays.
Risk components are: net cash flow ability to service the debt, credibility of the management, CLL SP sensitivity to the bitumen prices and general direction of the energy sector index.
US$ broke the resistance level and is marching up dramatically in last two weeks. Some annalist suggesting that the $10 to $20 premium added to the oil price related to previous $US weakness may disappear soon. General market condition may be effected by Hong Kong and Shanghai markets which are in the crush mode.
2V mention the refinery margins problem. IMO MRC and NG production at LUCK are irrelevant to CLL cash flow and as such will have minimal impact on the CLL SP.
Successful ALGAR production on the other hands can move the CLL SP to the $1.6 level.
Sharky`s trading model seems to work well, so good luck with your trades. Jurek.
