Krissy
A joint venture may not be bad if put together right. DG's history though is not good. Luke wasn't good, borrowing a year in advance was terrible, PDP is weak, POD 1 curtailment was terrible, so although I think a good joint venture could be put together I don't think it will happen and I am not for it.
As far as no rush to expand, well they have the first 20K on the go and 30K to be added by 2015 doesn't make it a rush, but again DG seems to like to jump the gun which makes him a sitting target for being taken.
I agree that with good management cash flow will be fine in 2011.
There is only 1 debenture and that is convertible by 2012 and it will be converted. You don't seem to get this point. $100 million debenture will not be paid back it will be converted.
The next due is the first lien note of $200 million in 2014 and then $587 in 2015.
If they go a JV route for example it might not be bad to have someone pay for the infrastructure for POD 3 in return for a %, say 50%, of the BBL/d. This would give CLL 5000 extra BBL/d at no cash outlay. Which would feed into the further expansions.
If they go it alone, and are prudent with their cash they would have to raise about $300 million. Maybe selling PDP would net $100 million by that time which would mean $200 million more then what they owe now.
Waiting for further expansion might not be bad, but DG doesn't seem to be patient enough
