I disagree with you with regards to “inconsistency in performance” on the part of Connacher.I believe that the main difference has been “luck” and negative governmental decisions and delays.
For instance, was it Gusella’s fault thatArgentina changed its policy with regards to oil producers and in essence took all margin over $45.00 per barrel?This resulted in significant revenue loss for Petrolifera (and by default Connacher) and caused Petrolifera’s stock to drop by 50% in just a few days.It halted the rapid growth for Petrolifera but initially had little impact on Connacher’s stock price.Had Argentina not acted in such a draconian fashion, Petrolifera’s stock would probably be selling in excess of $30 today, if not much higher.Connacher could have sold its stake in Petrolifera and financed Great Divide.
Gusella was able, though, to obtain financing before the credit crisis hit and complete Pod 1 on time and on budget.He also had it rapidly progressing towards design capacity when the financial crisis hit and oil plunged from $150 to $32 per barrel.Analysts were predicting $20 per barrel when he reduced Pod 1’s production.If you remember correctly, Connacher was selling for over $5.00 per share shortly after Great Divide’s startup.
I also believe that Gusella’s plan had to be altered after the unreasonable delay in Algar getting approved.It was an essentially identical plant to Pod 1 but took months longer to get approved.
You may think poorly of Gusella but I think he has performed admirably.In this tough economic times he has successfully obtained the funds to fund Algar and to insure that Connacher should weather this current economic storm.
With regards to Petrobank, I don’t really think that it does much good trying to compare the two companies.In my opinion, a lot of the difference is just plain luck of the draw. I was invested in Petrobank way back before its rapid stock escalation and dumped it to put my money in Connacher, because I thought Connacher had more potential.I still think Connacher has tremendous potential and may sometime in the future achieve success similar to Petrobank’s.
Martin
