Actually the principal on the 600,000,000 senior notes is not due until 2015. I believe you are referring to the 100,000,000 convertible debentures which are due June 2012. The recent 200,000,000 first lien notes are interest only until 2014.
I am not sure what the current price is on the debentures, but the company could purchase them (or some of them) on the open market for significantly less than face value prior to June 2012 - assuming cash is available for such a thing.
The 460 MM in cash the company has on hand is more than enough to finish Algar (200 MM) & the approx 70 MM other capital they need to spend this year. As you pointed out the degree of future success for CLL depends mostly on the price of oil.
My calculations show that at USD 65 WTIC & 85 cent exchange rate, and 15 optg cost / barrel POD1 should generate approx 25 MM per quarter. The remaining operations should add another 10 MM / qtr. This should leave operations in a slight positive cash flow after all interest & admin costs. At 20,000 bpd & same assumptions qtr cash flow should be in excess of 30MM - again after all interest costs. This translates to SP of between $3 & $4 by end of 2010.
