I remember reading a couple of lines from her article and thought to myself...wow...this woman "sweeps past" contrarian investing and goes right into even-crazy-people-would-say-she's-crazy. As such I am not surprised she's continuing her "analysis." Realize that we celebrate lunatics in our culture. Watch any "reality" tv program (not hard as they are ubiquitous), and the "star" is the one furthest from rational. I fully expect her to parlay her writing into a recurring spot on "Snooki & JWoww."

Yeah to think Al is not going to extend the LOC if there is no partner found is just dumb. He's not going to attempt to bankrupt the company when the company is his pride & joy...not to mention pretty much all of his net worth at the current moment. I also don't understand why it "likely" that such a conversion to equity of the LOC will impact the warrant cash so that it is less than a dollar for dollar decrease for the "cash needs" this guy's come up with....what's he basing that off of?

Right now MNKD needs to get their results published showing (hopefully) spectacular results. I think that's going to entice a partner and any partner is going to have to pay to play...so I am not too concerned about their cash needs. I think his valuation is too low and that affects his analysis. I don't think too many big pharmas are going to pass on the opportunity to discuss partnering with MNKD given what is widely-expected to be good results on their massive-revenue-potential drug. There's plenty of big pharmas. There's only one ultra-rapid-acting insulin ready to hit the market. Fact that it's inhaled and a paradigm shift shouldn't be forgotten as well. The competition should benefit us.

I was unaware we had any interest in AU :)

pericles.ipaustralia.gov.au/ols/auspat/applicationDetails.do?applicationNo=2013203027

Comments?

Liane, I'm not sure that's 100% true. I think you can withdrawal your contributions at any time without a problem, but if you withdraw any "earnings" then you get hit with a penalty of 10%. If you think about it, you're probably going to pay more tax through the holding of your personal shares than the ones held through your Roth after pulling it out and subjecting it to a penalty (cap gains rates can be as high as 23.8%). Not that I am suggesting doing that...as once that money is out, you can't get it back in...but I am just saying that you can take money out...and even if you have to take earnings out...the 10% hit isn't really that bad. That said, I assume you started contributing more than 5 years ago. See below:

http://money.cnn.com/retirement/guide/IRA_Roth.moneymag/index5.htm

There's state and local tax I haven't touched on that may apply. Discuss this with your tax advisor before relying on it. :)

I would think the analysts would be computing the price of MNKD on a stand alone basis...not merged into a big pharma. While the $140M example number I threw out may seem big to you and I...it's 2.8% of a much bigger number. No one is going to be hopping up and down about a 2.8% return...so in the M&A context it is irrelvant...really. It's gravy. Small gravy. Also unless someone buys MNKD's assets (which is never going to happen as that will give 2 levels of tax), the struture is irrelevant in an acquisition...either way it will enter the acquirer's consolidated group and be usable for USFIT purposes.

With the price targets most analysts are throwing out, they are not expecting this to be the super-mega-blockbuster that we believe it to be. In the end it is going to matter how Afrezza sells...and whether they can license technospere to others to get another revenue stream. I believe both can be massive revenue streams and discounting that back to today's price I think we are similarly massively undervalued. But that's just me. And I am assuming MNKD doesn't pay USFIT for quite some time. :)

Yeah, I don't think it's worth talking about. First, you'd have to make sure the NOL is good...which it likely is given the high and consistent ownership percentage of Al...but it is not a given that at least a portion of it isn't subject to a very low limit (under section 382 of the internal revenue code). Second, even if it is good, the value of the NOL to any acquirer is the adjusted equity value of MNKD multiplied by the applicable federal rate in effect during the acquisition date. It's like 2.8% now. So assuming MNKD is acquired for a massive number and the equity value is $4B, then 2.8% of $4B, or about $140M of the NOLs would be usable post change. For a $2B NOL, that would be about 15 years to burn up...and NOLs expire after 20 years...so you'd be running into a situation that the NOLs would expire before they can be used under the applicable 382 limit. I'm not even discussing net unrealized built-in gains/losses that can affect that limit; how the equity value is calculated; or other nuances...this is high level (and probably already confusing).

Long story short, the NOL is a footnote. No one is buying MNKD for a tax loss...they're buying MNKD or any other company for their business line and how it can add...massively in the case of MNKD assuming approval...to the revenue number of the acquirer.