Scarff,
Firstly I must commend and thank you for taking the time to present some sort of tangible reasoning for why investors should be wary of Aurelian representation on our NOT board. I've been around here for around 6 months now and I have become used to the notion that I should know that Aurelian shareholders were somehow screwed.
I've read a bit on that deal - not much.
A few comments and questions. I know this is on the verge of being off-topic, I apologize if this is viewed as clutter - I do my best to respect the rules of the hub.
1. The SP went to $40ish, correct? As you say, the 20 day average price was higher than the Kinross takeover price etc. Call me crazy, but if the same situation happened with Noront - shouldn't I blame myself for not selling at the inflated price? The market is the market. It can be brutal. Did the ARU board advise it's shareholders not to sell or something?
2. The takeover price you mentioned. Similar to what Bishop had mentioned. I refer to this article of Goldcorps purchase of Gold Eagle Mines in Ontario (?). http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/business/story.html?id=e0f3318e-09b3-4a31-8d01-741090c3585e
This purchase price was 20% of insitu minerals. Obviously a premium considering the political and mining friendly climate of Canada.
I see the ARU price was closer to 8.5%. I have also read that the mining and political climate in Ecuador at the time was quite volatile. I think the extraction costs are similar between these two mines - in my opinion it seems like a fair valuation for the risk.
Large mining companies do not take risks. If they do take risks, they will calculate them and hedge them proportionately. The price of gold, US$, oil, rubber tires, labour, environmental risks and political risks.
3. A third example I will offer is a bigger and better property than ARU. It's in a country called Venezuela. I remember buying shares real cheap at $4 only to find out that the Venezuelan government decided it was going to nationalize all of their mining practices. You can get those shares real cheap now...somewhere around 25 cents. I won't work out that discount but it sure isn't it the ballpark of 8%, I can assure you.
With all due respect to the Aurelian investors, and with what little I know I about the situation. I have not seen ANY posts in support of Anderson and what he did with ARU on this hub, so there obviously is bad blood. Fair enough. Frankly though, I also haven't seen any posts that would lead me to believe that the ARU board did in fact shaft their investors. All is fair in love and war...and investing. Finally someone posted something tangible (thank you!) and with a little research, in my opinion I honestly think it was a fair deal...if not a good deal.
I recently posted that I was the best poker I know. I'm not trying to be arrogant about it (I don't play against anyone any good), but I honestly win more than 75% of the time I play - it surprises me. I think the reason why I do so well is that I ALWAYS take a bird in the hand, rather than two in the bush - as the expression goes. Take the sure thing.
Looks like that's what the ARU board did. I tell you, I sure wish the Crystallex board screwed me and got me $3 for each of my shares instead of the paltry 25 cents they are now worth....
Brattymack
