Chad, I think TA can anticipate the direction of certain binary events, such as a rumored buyout situtation; or rumors about getting or not getting a huge chunk of new business. But in those types of events, while they might be binary (given a rumor fueled run-up), insiders know far better what to expect. What, am I implying insider trading in the stock market!!?
I don't think that's the case here, our inside boys have been surprised before, true, more by people, aka the FDA people, than by trials, but still.
I think Trend's TA has a great shot at being on the money, right up to the time that we hit the Event Horizon, then, for me, TA and all else is out the window. Once the event is made public, TA is right back in business.
TA is a reflection of how the psychologoy of the stock investing massess works in general, which is a subset of how humans act, which is a subset of the world, etc. TA predictive power is made stronger, perhaps deceptively and undeservedly so, by the fact that many people use it.
