GW,
Well, I hope it never comes to that, but to pull out the calculator, if we need $140 million (100 to pay off the noteholders, and $40 million to finance the arbitration (I have no idea what its gonna cost)):
then conversion at:
$0.14 - gives us an additional 1 billion shares for a total of 1.4 billion shares o/s.
$600 million arb win puts us at $0.43 a share
$1 billion arb win puts us at $0.72 a share
1.4 billion arb win puts us at $1.00 a share.
Keep in mind however, these numbers would be in 3-4 years. So, its not anyone looking for a quick buck. And this is near the worst case scenario, i believe. So, if ur able to wait a while, you may yet be able to make ur money back, if you got in low enough.
Obviously there are many factors that can make this situation better, like getting some money for our equipment, maybe some money for our data, a higher share price which requires less shares upon conversion, settling with the bondholders for less than par value (i.e. $0.78 on the dollar), simple refinancing of debt (maybe mezzanine style with a conversion option at a higher price, etc.
Basically, what I'm trying to say, is that the current share price doesn't reflect all of these possibilities.
But, understandibly, if I was a noteholder, i'd be trying to keep the share price low (i.e. boxing the market, large (fake?) asks that we are seeing everyday, etc), so that if the conversion option is the choice that KRY makes (or the noteholders force them to make), i control as many of the shares i possibly can.
Losing control of the company (because conversion would introduce a new class of majority shareholder most likely), is what makes me believe that Fung will most likely try to avoid this option. I mean, if they really want to stick around, I highly doubt the new majority shareholders will be keen on keeping current management and their salaries.
Just something else to ponder about. But the simple math says we aren't dead yet, by a long shot.
FK.
